شماره ركورد
1054414
عنوان مقاله
تحليلي بر روشهاي شناسايي نقاط حادثهخيز جادهاي و انتخاب روش بهينه
عنوان به زبان ديگر
Analyzing the methods of identifying road accidental points and choosing the optimal method
پديد آورندگان
احدي، محمدرضا مركز تحقيقات راه، مسكن و شهرسازي - پژوهشكدۀ حملونقل , سليمي كوچي ، محمد باقر دانشگاه علوم انتظامي امين
تعداد صفحه
36
از صفحه
80
تا صفحه
115
كليدواژه
مديريت ايمني راه , تصادفات , نقاط حادثهخيز , روش بايس تجربي
چكيده فارسي
زمينه و هدف: اقدامات اصلاحي و ارتقاي ايمني در راهها مستمراً موردتقاضا است و اصولاً رويكرد جاري در زمينۀ مديريت ايمني زيرساختهاي جادهاي، انجام اين اقدامات را ضرورتي اجتنابناپذير و بهگونهاي اجباري ميداند. باوجود اين، كماكان هيچگونه ابزار علمي كه در سطح گسترده در زمينۀ ارزيابي اقدامات ايمني مورداستفاده قرار گرفته باشد، در دسترس نيست. با اذعان به اينكه ايمني بهصورت مطلق وجود ندارد و همۀ فعاليتهاي حملونقلي با درصدي از خطرپذيري همراه است، ليكن مديريت ايمني راه با تمركز بر شناسايي و اصلاح نقاط حادثهخيز ميتواند اقدامات و طرحهاي اجرايي را براي ايجاد حداكثر كارايي ارائه و درعينحال ضرورت اقدام هماهنگ را اثبات و درمورد مراحل توسعه و بهبود ايمني راه بحث كند؛ لذا روشهاي متنوعي در راستاي شناسايي، رتبهبندي و ارائۀ يك برنامۀ عملياتي براي ايمني راهها مورداستفاده قرار گرفته و نتايجي نيز در برداشته است.
روششناسي پژوهش: اين پژوهش با استفاده از يك روش مروري و مقايسهاي به بررسي انواع روشهاي نقاط حادثهخيز پرداخته است.
يافتهها: اكثر روشها بر اساس فراوانيهاي گزارششده براي يك مكان در دورههاي زماني كوتاهمدت (يك تا سه سال) بهعنوان دورۀ تحليل، منتج به ارائۀ ليستي از نقاط حادثهخيز و يا تعيين مبنايي براي اولويتبندي آنها، محاسبات خود را انجام ميدهند؛ ليكن بايد توجه داشت كه ميانگين تصادفات گزارششده در برخي نقاط كم است و ممكن است اين فراواني تحتتأثير ماهيت تصادفي تصادفات (تحتتأثير متغيرهاي تصادفي) قرار گيرد؛ لذا براي كاهش اين تغييرات، استفاده از روشهاي بايس تجربي (EB) توصيه ميگردد.
نتيجهگيري: اين پژوهش نشان داد كه علاوه بر تعداد و فراواني تصادفات، بايد شدت و ديگر متغيرهاي ترافيكي نيز براي شناسايي نقاط حادثهخيز در نظر گرفته شوند. روش بايس تجربي (EB)، يك روش مناسب براي بهدستآوردن تخمين صحيح بهمنظور دستيابي به تصادفات يك مكان مشخص ميباشد. همچنين زمان مناسبي كه براي دريافت اطلاعات براي بسط مدل پيشبيني تصادفات و شناسايي نقاط حادثهخيز به كار ميرود، بين سه تا پنج سال است.
چكيده لاتين
Background and purpose: Corrective measures and road safety improvements
are in constant demand and, basically, the current approach to road
infrastructure safety management considers these actions as inevitable and
compulsory. However, there is still no scientific tool available that is widely
used in the assessment of safety measures. Acknowledging that there is no
absolute safety and all transportation activities are subject to a percentage of
risk. However, road safety management, with a focus on identifying and
correcting incidental points, can propose actions and implementation plans to
maximize performance, prove the need for coordinated action and discuss the
development stages and road safety improvements; Therefore, various methods
have been used to identify, rank and present an operational plan for road safety,
and have also taken results.
Methodology: This study uses a review and comparation method to investigate
various types of accidental points methods.
Findings: Most methods perform their calculations based on reported
frequencies for a location in the short term (one to three years) as an analysis
period, resulting in a list of incident points or determining the basis for
prioritizing them; However, it should be noted that the average reported
accidents in some places are low and this abundance may be influenced by the
accidental nature of accidents (under the influence of random variables);
Therefore, the use of experimental Bias (EB) methods is recommended to
reduce these variations.
Conclusion: This study showed that, in addition to the number and frequency of
accidents, intensity and other traffic variables should also be considered for the
identification of accidental points. The experimental Bias method (EB) is a
suitable method for obtaining an accurate estimate for the occurrence of
accidents at a specified location. Also, the time it takes to get information for
expanding the prediction model of accidents and identifying incident points is
between three and five years
are in constant demand and, basically, the current approach to road
infrastructure safety management considers these actions as inevitable and
compulsory. However, there is still no scientific tool available that is widely
used in the assessment of safety measures. Acknowledging that there is no
absolute safety and all transportation activities are subject to a percentage of
risk. However, road safety management, with a focus on identifying and
correcting incidental points, can propose actions and implementation plans to
maximize performance, prove the need for coordinated action and discuss the
development stages and road safety improvements; Therefore, various methods
have been used to identify, rank and present an operational plan for road safety,
and have also taken results.
Methodology: This study uses a review and comparation method to investigate
various types of accidental points methods.
Findings: Most methods perform their calculations based on reported
frequencies for a location in the short term (one to three years) as an analysis
period, resulting in a list of incident points or determining the basis for
prioritizing them; However, it should be noted that the average reported
accidents in some places are low and this abundance may be influenced by the
accidental nature of accidents (under the influence of random variables);
Therefore, the use of experimental Bias (EB) methods is recommended to
reduce these variations.
Conclusion: This study showed that, in addition to the number and frequency of
accidents, intensity and other traffic variables should also be considered for the
identification of accidental points. The experimental Bias method (EB) is a
suitable method for obtaining an accurate estimate for the occurrence of
accidents at a specified location. Also, the time it takes to get information for
expanding the prediction model of accidents and identifying incident points is
between three and five years
سال انتشار
1398
عنوان نشريه
راهور
فايل PDF
7582776
عنوان نشريه
راهور
لينک به اين مدرک