بررسي تاثير سياستهاي پولي و مالي در رشد بخش كشاورزي ايران

An analysis of monetary and fiscal policy effects on agricultural growth in Iran

In this paper, we study the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on agricultural sector growth using a Structural Vector Analysis Regression (VAR), the reduced form of model. We determined the long-run variables vectors. Then, by using the Johansen co-integration method, for the years 1972-2002 three long-run vectors in which they related to aggregate supply and demand and equilibrium conditions in agricultural sector were estimated. Using the estimated long-run and short-run relationship, we analyzed the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on agricultural growth in that sector. The results show the expansionary (contractionary) fiscal policy in the short- run does not affect the agricultural growth rate, but in the long-run it has a positive (negative) effect. Also, the effect of expansionary (contractionary) monetary policy in the short-run does not affect the growth rate in agricultural sector but in the long-run it reduces (increases) the growth rate in that sector.