محاسبه قيمت تمام شده توليد نفت شيل

Economic Appraisal of Shale Oil Production

تأثيرات امنيتي، سياسي و اقتصادي نفت و گاز شيل از موضوعاتي است كه شكل بازي را در عرصه انرژي دنيا تغيير داده است. كشورهاي مختلف به دنبال دستيابي به تكنولوژي تجاري توليد نفت از منابع رستي هستند. در اين مقاله، پس از بررسي فني و اقتصادي توليد نفت رستي، هزينه­ هاي سرمايه ­گذاري و عملياتي توليد نفت رستي را به صورت يك مدل مالي جهت تحليل حساسيت رفتار سرمايه­ گذاران در بازار مورد بررسي قرار داده ­ايم. نتايج به دست آمده حاكي از آن است كه با فرض عدم تحول شديد در فناوري‌هاي موجود توليد نفت شيل، قيمت 52 دلار براي هر بشكه نفت، قيمتي تعادلي براي سرمايه­گذاران به منظور دستيابي به نرخ بازده داخلي 10 درصدي است.

The security, political and economic impacts of shale oil and gas, has changed the supply side of international energy market. Different countries are looking for feasible technology of shale oil production. In this paper after studies on the technical and economic aspects of shale oil production, we studied on the CAPEX and OPEX of shale oil production in a feasibility study framework in order to analysis the investments behaviour. We found that subject to no vast change in the current technology, the price of 52$ per barrel is a balanced long rune price for investors to have 10% IRR. Subject to forecasts on the main parameters of the costs of shale oil production and macro energy independence policy in the USA, we found that before 2014 because of low development of hydraulic fracturing, the production costs of shale oil was high, so continuous shale oil production needed the high oil price. After that time when production costs of shale oil in USA decreased, in order to prevent the development of this technology in the other countries, especially Russia and China, the price of oil declined and managed around 52$.