مناطق مساعد براي ميزباني حركت‌هاي راديكال سلفي تكفيري در جهان اسلام: گمانه‌هايي براي دهه منتهي به سال 1410 شمسي

در آستانه آغاز سال 1400 شمسي، مي‌توان بر فراز قرني پرماجرا ايستاد و سرشت و سرنوشت سوانح گوناگون اين سده‌ي لبريز از نصيحت و عبرت را از نظر گذارند: از جنگ‌هاي بسيار پرتلفات جهاني و تأسيس كشورهاي جديد با چندپاره شدن كشورهاي مستقر تا مداخله‌هاي موسوم به بشردوستانه و جنگ‌هاي نيابتي. اما از ميان اين سوانح خطير، جديدترين آنها يعني تأسيس دولتي اسلامي در بخش بزرگي از سرزمين سوريه و عراق، حاوي درس‌هاي استراتژيك و ارزشمند است. متأسفانه سانحه و واقعه‌اي به اين عظمت، در كشور ما به دست اصحاب ايدئولوژي و ژورناليست‌ها و محققان ميان مايه سقط شد در حالي كه ايرانيان و آكادمي‌هاي ايراني مي‌توانستند بواسطه درگير شدن قهري ايران در اين ماجرا، به ريفرينس بين‌المللي در باب اركان و آينده داعش و گروه‌هاي مشابه بدل شوند. مايه بسي خسران و يأس است كه استادان ايراني براي فهم ريشه و شيوه و آينده حركت‌هايي از جنس داعش به منابع غربي پناه بياورند در حالي كه جنگ در همين نزديكي ايرانيان رخ داده و هزاران ايراني مرتبط با اين جنگ بي‌نظير ، علي‌الاصول خزانه‌ي داده و تحليل مي‌توانند بود. به هر ترتيب، امروز آتش ادعاهاي داعش فروخفته است. گمان اول و ساده انديشانه اين است كه داعش از بين رفته است و راه مقابله با ظهور مجدد آن نيز تقويت نيروهاي ويژه ضربتي و ضدتروريستي است. پرسش اساسي اما اين است كه با فرض امكان ظهور مجدد داعش يا گروهي مشابه آن، مساعدترين منطقه جهان اسلام براي بازيگري اين گروه خطرناك كجاست و نشانه‌ها و علائم ميزباني داعش كدامند؟ پژوهش حاضر با علم به ادبيات گسترده‌اي كه در زمينه گروه‌هاي سلفي توليد شده، در پي طرح نكته‌اي ديگر و تازه است. سعي نگارنده ، معطوف به آزمون اين فرضيه جذاب است كه اساسي‌ترين رانه در انتخاب داعش القاعده از جانب جهادي‌ها، «احساس اشغال» است و اصلي‌ترين نشانه براي تخمين مكان ظهور داعش يا شبه‌داعش هم عبارت است از مفهوم بي‌دولتي يا Statelessness.

On the eve of the beginning of the 1400s, one can stand on an adventurous century and consider the nature and fate of the various tragedies of this century full of advice and lessons: from the very costly world wars and the establishments of new countries with the fragmentation of formerly established countries to So-called humanitarian interventions and proxy wars. But among all these serious disasters, the most recent of them, the establishment of an Islamic state in a large part of Syria and Iraq, contains strategic and valuable lessons. Unfortunately, an accident of this magnitude was aborted in our country by ideologues, journalists, and researchers, while Iranians and Iranian academies could have resorted to international references on the pillars and the future of ISIS and similar groups due to Iran's forced involvement in this affair. It is a great loss and despair for Iranian masters to resort to Western sources to understand the roots, methods, and future of ISIS movements, while the war took place near the Iranian borders and thousands of Iranians were involved in this abnormal war, and could be treasury of data and analysis. Anyway, the fire of ISIS's claims has been extinguished. The first and the most simplistic assumption is that ISIS has disappeared and the way to deal with its re-emergence is to strengthen the special strike and counter-terrorist forces. The main question, however, is that, assuming the possibility of the re-emergence of ISIS or a similar group, where is the most favorable region in the Islamic world for such terrible groups to play, and what are the signs and symptoms of ISIS hosting. The present study tries to test the hypothesis that the main element in the jihadists' choice of al-Qaeda/ISIS is the feeling of occupation, and the main indication for estimating the place of emergence of ISIS or quasi-ISIS is the concept of statelessness. 2.Methodology Various answers have been given as to where ISIS will appear, but the method of analysis and research of this article is completely different. Most scholars on jihadist and fundamentalist groups emphasize one or more of the following components to explain the location of ISIS: Failed States Jihadi mercenary army Extension of the Caliphate: Revival of Islamic sharia on the earth with the establishment of a Model Islamic State Contrary to the above three assumptions, which have fallen into the etymological stage of ISIS and are incapable of understanding the present and especially the estimation of the future, the present paper looks into the future by focusing on radical Salafi movements (of the ISIS type), not through conventional futures studies and the arrangement of numerous and unusable scenarios in policy-making. In this study, focusing on the main texts and main repositories of ISIS thought, we explain the present and speculate the coming years. 3.Findings It seems that wherever the influence of the government is not deep or whatever area that can be equipped, hidden and escaped, the establishment of ISIS is favorable. Based on this fact: Border areas such as Kandahar, Afghanistan, or any other area bordering Diyala province in Iraq, mountainous and inaccessible areas such as the mountainous areas of Tora Bora as well as the mountainous areas of western and even northern Iran, uninhabited areas such as remote southern villages in Kerman, and financially poor areas such as South Khorasan province have the potential to host Takfiri-Jihadi groups. The main sign of the announcement of the presence of ISIS and similar groups is the start of explosive operations, abductions, and suicide attacks, the occurrence of which is a sign of the start of operations of radical groups. These cases have been addressed in detail by radical fundamentalist theorists, and as noted, the most important role players are Abu Bakr al-Naji, Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, and Abu Qatada al-Palestinian. Therefore, as it is emphasized in the previous sentences that the way to recognize and deal with Takfiri movements such as ISIS is to first understand the driving force and emergence of Takfiri movements, and in this regard, it is needed to focus specifically on the component of the feeling of occupation and the experience of occupation and exclusion. an‎d secondly, to avoid surprises it is necessary to take Aqaba and the intellectual reservoirs of this kind of movement in study centers seriously, because it seems that Iranian universities and study centers are more preoccupied than familiar with the currents of thought. They are Western thinkers. 4.Conclusion Now, after getting acquainted with the mechanism of determining the areas of operations by Salafi-Takfiri groups, the objective and practical question is which areas have the talent to host ISIS and similar groups? Can ISIS be stationed in any area? What are the areas and squares that are likely to be of interest to them? According to the six rules and regulations mentioned earlier, it seems that wherever the influence of the government is not deep or whatever area that can be equipped, hidden and escaped, the establishment of ISIS is favorable.