ارزيابي ظرفيت هاي ايجاد اشتغال در برنامه سوم توسعه

Evaluation of Employment Creation Potentials in the Third Development Plan

The present paper compares the employment previews in the third development plan, by using the most prevalent analytical tools of planning i.e. input-output table, the surplus proportion of work to production, and production elasticity of manpower, with the results of the mentioned methods, regarding the planʹs objectives for investment and production in the economic sectors. The results of the three mentioned estimations show that insignificant differences exist in the industry and mine, construction and services sectors. In addition, the employment previews of the third plan are compatible with the estimations in the aforementioned three sectors. - On the other hand, estimations for three sectors of agriculture, oil and gas, and water and electricity not only do not reveal similar results, but also show distinctive differences with their forecasted schedules. This issue needs better attention of programmers to precisely and sensitively set goals in the above three sectors and persuade them to take advantage of alternative methods to determine the said goals.