بررسي خشكسالي ، ترسالي و پيش بيني تغييرات اقليم منطقه بيرجند با استفاده از مدل هاي آماري

Studying Droughts and Forecasting Precipitation and Temperature in Birjand Area

This research was conducted to study droughts and forecast precipitation and temperature in Birjand area . First monthly total precipitation and mean temperature of the station during 1955-2001 period were analyzed .After testing randomness, homogeneity, and stationary of the monthly precipitin and temperature series , the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was implemented to the series . The accuracy of the resulted models was checked by some indexes such as AIC and SBC criteria. The final model for precipitation of Birjand is(0,1,1) (0,1,1) and for the temperature of the station is (1,1,1) (0,1,1 .