بررسي خشكسالي اقليمي و امكان و پيش بيني آن در شش حوضه واقع در غرب و شمال غرب ايران

An Investigation on Climatological Droughts and Itʹs Prediction of Feasibility in Six Basins in West and North West of IRAN

Drought is a normal feature of climate and it may occur in different climatic regions. One of the most important stages of drought evaluation is to identify the indices and then to analyze intensity, severity and duration of drought events. In the present study standard precipitation index (SPI) was selected and the statistical characteristics of SPI were analyzed for monthly precipitation values. Monthly drought maps were prepared using GIS softwares like Iiwis and Are view. Intensity and duration of drought events were determined for each basin using data derived from zoning maps. In order to develop more suitable mathematical models for the prediction of drought intensity, time series analysis was applied and average drought intensity index for six basins was predicted.