ارزيابي اثر تغيير اقليم بر مشخصات امواج در سواحل خليج فارس

Evaluation of the effect of climate change on the characteristics of waves in the coasts of the Persian Gulf

عوامل مختلفي در ايجاد تغيير اقليم نقش دارند كه از آن جمله مي‌توان به فرآيندهاي اقيانوسي (مانند گردش‌هاي اقيانوسي)، تغييرات تابش خورشيدي دريافت شده از سوي زمين، فوران آتشفشان‌ها و تغييرات ناشي از فعاليت‌هاي بشري اشاره كرد. تغيير اقليم بر روي پديده‌هاي جوي و اقيانوسي از قبيل دماي سطحي كره زمين، بارش، تراز آب درياها، سرعت بادها، ارتفاع امواج، خطوط ساحلي و ساير پديده‌ها اثر گذاشته و اين مشخصات را مورد تغيير قرار داده است. در مطالعه اثرات تغيير اقليم بر پديده‌هاي اقيانوسي، تخمين ميزان اثرگذاري تغيير اقيلم در طولاني مدت از اهميت زيادي برخوردار است. اين امر از اين جهت مهم مي‌باشد كه سازه‌هاي دريايي موجود در اين مناطق تحت تأثير اين تغييرات قرار گرفته و نياز به اصلاح دستورالعمل استاندارد مهندسي طراحي سازه‌هاي ساحلي مي‌باشد. در اين تحقيق با استفاده مدل تغييرات اقليميCGCM3 مقادير سرعت باد براي خليج فارس و درياي عمان استخراج گرديد. اين مقادير به عنوان ورودي مدل، با استفاده از مدل عددي نسل سوم MIKE21(SW) كه با كمترين پيش فرض‌ها به شبيه‌سازي پارامترهاي موج مي پردازد، تبديل به مشخصات موج گرديد و در نهايت ميزان تغييرات مشخصات موج از قبيل ارتفاع موج، پريود موج و جهت موج در خليج فارس، درياي عمان و بخشي از اقيانوس هند كه متأثر از تغيير اقليم منطقه مي باشد بدست آمده است. نتايج بررسي‌ها نشان داده كه اثر تغيير اقليم بر روي ارتفاع موج و پريود موج ناچيز اما در سواحل مكران اثر تغيير اقليم بر روي زاويه جهت موج قابل تامل مي‌باشد و اين امر روي فرآيند رسوب‌گذاري اثر‌گذار خواهد بود و پيشنهاد مي-گردد جهت احداث بنادر و سازه هاي دريايي از قبيل آبگيرهاي آبشيرين كن ها در اين مناطق اثر تغيير اقليم بر روي جهت موج و اثر آن روي سازه مورد بررسي بيشتر قرار گيرد.

Various factors play a role in climate change, including oceanic processes (such as ocean orbits), changes in solar radiation received from the earth, volcanic eruptions, and changes in human activity. Climate change has affected atmospheric and oceanic phenomena such as the Earth's surface temperature, precipitation, sea level, wind speed, wave height, coastlines and other phenomena and has changed these characteristics. In studying the effects of climate change on oceanic phenomena, estimating the long-term impact of climate change is of great importance. This is important because the offshore structures in these areas are affected by these changes and there is a need to amend the standard guidelines for the design of coastal structures. In this study, using the CGCM3 climate change model, wind speed values ​​for the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman were extracted. These values ​​as model input, using the third generation numerical model MIKE21 (SW) which simulates wave parameters with the least assumptions, were converted into wave characteristics and finally the amount of changes in wave characteristics such as wave height Wave period and wave direction have been obtained in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of ​​Oman and part of the Indian Ocean that is affected by climate change in the region. The results of studies have shown that the effect of climate change on wave height and wave period is negligible, but in Makran beaches the effect of climate change on the angle of the wave direction can be considered and this will affect the sedimentation process. The effect of climate change on the wave direction and its effect on the structure should be further investigated for the construction of ports and marine structures such as desalination catchments in these areas.Various factors play a role in climate change, including oceanic processes (such as ocean orbits), changes in solar radiation received from the earth, volcanic eruptions, and changes in human activity. Climate change has affected atmospheric and oceanic phenomena such as the Earth's surface temperature, precipitation, sea level, wind speed, wave height, coastlines and other phenomena and has changed these characteristics. In studying the effects of climate change on oceanic phenomena, estimating the long-term impact of climate change is of great importance. This is important because the offshore structures in these areas are affected by these changes and there is a need to amend the standard guidelines for the design of coastal structures. In this study, using the CGCM3 climate change model, wind speed values ​​for the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman were extracted. These values ​​as model input, using the third generation numerical model MIKE21 (SW) which simulates wave parameters with the least assumptions, were converted into wave characteristics and finally the amount of changes in wave characteristics such as wave height Wave period and wave direction have been obtained in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of ​​Oman and part of the Indian Ocean that is affected by climate change in the region. The results of studies have shown that the effect of climate change on wave height and wave period is negligible, but in Makran beaches the effect of climate change on the angle of the wave direction can be considered and this will affect the sedimentation process. The effect of climate change on the wave direction and its effect on the structure should be further investigated for the construction of ports and marine structures such as desalination catchments in these areas.Various factors play a role in climate change, including oceanic processes (such as ocean orbits), changes in solar radiation received from the earth, volcanic eruptions, and changes in human activity. Climate change has affected atmospheric and oceanic phenomena such as the Earth's surface temperature, precipitation, sea level, wind speed, wave height, coastlines and other phenomena and has changed these characteristics. In studying the effects of climate change on oceanic phenomena, estimating the long-term impact of climate change is of great importance. This is important because the offshore structures in these areas are affected by these changes and there is a need to amend the standard guidelines for the design of coastal structures. In this study, using the CGCM3 climate change model, wind speed values ​​for the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman were extracted. These values ​​as model input, using the third generation numerical model MIKE21 (SW) which simulates wave parameters with the least assumptions, were converted into wave characteristics and finally the amount of changes in wave characteristics such as wave height Wave period and wave direction have been obtained in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of ​​Oman and part of the Indian Ocean that is affected by climate change in the region. The results of studies have shown that the effect of climate change on wave height and wave period is negligible, but in Makran beaches the effect of climate change on the angle of the wave direction can be considered and this will affect the sedimentation process. The effect of climate change on the wave direction and its effect on the structure should be further investigated for the construction of ports and marine structures such as desalination catchments in these areas.