تأثيرهاي ابتكار يك كمربند و يك راه بر اقتصاد سياسي غرب آسيا

Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative on the Political Economy of West Asia

ابتكار يك كمربند و يك راه به‌عنوان مرحلۀ جديدي از برون‌گرايي چين و تأثيرهاي جهاني و منطقه‌اي آن از زمان اعلام در سال 2013 تاكنون محل تحليل‌هاي مختلفي بوده است. در اين ميان، كمتر تحليلي اين ابتكار را از ديدگاه رژيم‌هاي بين‌المللي اقتصادي نگريسته است. از اين‌رو، مي‌توان پرسيد كه چين چرا به‌دنبال رژيم‌سازي جهاني است و چگونه آن را از راه مناطق مختلف از جمله غرب آسيا به پيش مي‌برد و كنش‌هاي نظري و عملي رژيمي چين در غرب آسيا چيست؟ بر اين اساس، مسئلۀ اصلي اين پژوهش چيستي تأثيرهاي ابتكار يك كمربند و يك راه بر اقتصاد سياسي غرب آسيا در سال‌هاي 2013 تا 2021 است. براي بررسي اين مسئله، ابتكار يك كمربند و يك راه را با تأكيد بر غرب آسيا در دو مرحلۀ نظري و عملي بررسي مي‌كنيم. ابتدا با روش تحليل محتوا، مقوله‌هايي از درون چهار متن منتخب مربوط به راه ابريشم نوين، سند مادر راه ابريشم نوين 2015، مقالۀ سياستي عرب – چين در سال 2016، سخنراني شي جين پينگ در مجمع سالانۀ بوآئو 2021 و ابتكار پنج ماده‌اي وزير خارجۀ چين براي غرب آسيا (2021) را به‌عنوان كنش نظري چين، شناسايي و در مرحلۀ بعد با مدل فرايندهاي عِلي اقتصادي برگرفته از نظريۀ رژيم‌هاي بين‌المللي اقتصادي كنش عملي چين در غرب آسيا را توصيف و تحليل مي‌كنيم. يافته‌هاي اين پژوهش نشان مي‌دهد كه چين به‌دنبال رژيم‌سازي جهاني به‌صورت وارونه با تأكيد بر سياست سفلي‌ و به‌صورت آرام و از راه مناطق مختلف از جمله غرب آسيا است.

Introduction: In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the Belt and Road project, which had six land corridors and a sea route, and has now expanded into areas such as space, air, and digital. This initiative has been considered as a new stage in China's opening up (industrial development strategy and transition from economic development strategy) since its announcement. So that a group of it with the anarchic structure of power and geo lenses, The other group, the economic structure of power and in terms of interests. Another group is the identity structure of power and from the point of view of nation-building, and finally, another group has emphasized the class structure of power and analysed it through the lens of imperialism. The reason for this diversity in analysis, in addition to the different views on the study of phenomena, is often rooted in the principles governing foreign policy and China's declared policy of rejecting hegemony (emphasizing low policy and rejecting high policy). In addition, it is Chinese political culture that emphasizes a calm, low-cost, and peaceful emergence. Another factor is the complexity of China's international behaviour which has aligned its policies with existing international institutions and has introduced the New Silk Road as a win-win program that addresses both traditional and non-traditional security issues. Most important of all is the flexibility of the new Silk Road, which is managed with a great plan and leads to analytical confusion and often incomplete analysis among international relations researchers in the study of this phenomenon. Less analytical, however, has seen the initiative through the lens of international economic regimes. The concept of international economic regimes is defined by the absence of force, the absence of hierarchy among issues, and the existence of multiple channels of communication between societies. China's five goals ("policy coordination", "facilities connectivity", "financial integration", "unimpeded trade" and "people-to-people bond") are clearly stated in the Silk Road document. Together, these five goals evoke a kind of international regime and these principles seem to be gradually replacing existing international institutions and regimes. In this regard, China has made a series of theoretical and practical actions and efforts for each region. The real situation can be considered the turning point and the beginning of the transition period or the signs and symptoms of the ideal situation, i.e., a complete long-term Chinese regime at the international level and not at the domestic and regional levels. Research Questions: why China seeks to create a global regime and how it promotes it through various regions, including West Asia, and what are the theoretical and practical measures of the Chinese regime in West Asia? Accordingly, the main issue of this research is: What are the impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative on the political economy of West Asia in the periods between 2013-2021? Research Hypotheses: The hypothesis of this research is: the belt and road initiative has strengthened and increased GDP and national economic prosperity as the main political goal, strengthening new technologies, especially in the field of transportation and information and communication technology. It has also made economic goals the focus of West Asian foreign policy. Methodology: For studying this issue, we examined “the Belt and Road Initiative” with an emphasis on West Asia in both theoretical and practical stages. First, by content analysis method, categories from the four selected texts related to the New Silk Road (New Silk Road Mother Document 2015, Sino-Arab Relations Policy Article 2016, Xi Jinping's Speech at the Boao 2021 Annual Assembly, and the Chinese Foreign Minister's Five-Article Initiative for West Asia 2021) is identified as China's theoretical action, and in the second stage, the practical action of China in West Asia is described and analyzed using the model of causal economic processes derived from the theory of international economic regimes. Conclusion: The findings of this study show that China seeks to establish an inverted global regime, with an emphasis on low policies and peacefully through various regions, including West Asia.