ديدگاهي نوين در مدلسازي عددي تغيير شكلهاي پوسته زمين قسمت دوم : كاربرد

A New Method for Numerical Modeling of Crustal Deformations, Part Two: Application

Spatial distribution of the strength of interplate coupling between Philippine Sea (PBS) plate and continental plate in Tokai district (central Japan) is investigated in detail through inverse analysis of geodetic data. In this research, the major causes of crustal deformations are assigned to three main factors; namely, rate of tectonic forces, rate of fault deformations (sliding field of interface boundary), and far-field treatment. Using geodetic data concerning the Tokai zone, the inversion tool will compute driving tectonic forces and slippage vectors rates. Far-field boundary conditions are determined by means of minimization of residuals. These residuals are differences between the calculated and observed crustal movements. All peripheral boundaries of the model are covered by a set of springs whose stiffness coefficients are initially unknown. These stiffness coefficients are investigated in a manner that a plausible pattern of problemʹs components could be reproduced by the model. An assessment of coupled zone of the next coming Tokai earthquake could be considered as the main result of this research. Some evidences such as the seismicity patterns of Tokai district, play remarkable role to prove the validity of the proposed method.