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An Appropriate Model for Forecasting Copper Price

Estimating the future conditions is necessary for planning, and this is possible only with forecasting. Enterprises need to forecast the price of the products, for production planning, economic analyses of projects, study for new development investment, etc. In this paper the price of the copper is estimated from 1995 to 2004 using Moving Average (MA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), Exponential Smoothing (ES) and Justified Exponential Smoothing (JES) methods. The results are, then, compared with real prices, and validity of forecasts is evaluated using Mean Average Deviation (MAD) and Tracking Signal (TS) indicators. The result of study shows that forecasting by Justified Exponential Smoothing (JES) method, with parameters: a= 0.9 and Beta= -0.2 has the least deviation from real prices, and the expected price of the copper for 2005 is estimated 117.37 cent per pound.