بررسي رابطه عليت گرنجري بين مصرف انرژي و رشد اقتصادي در ايران طي سالهاي 1346-1381

An Investigation of Granger - Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption & Economic Growth in Iran (1967-2002)

Iran as a developing country possesses rich and extensive energy resources has an advantage in energy-intensive industries. In this research, Granger-causal relationship between economic growth in Iran and various energy carriers including oil products, electricity, natural gas and solid fuels are investigated using Toda and Yamamoto procedure for period 1967-2002. The results reveal that there is a unidirectional Granger-causal relationship from electricity consumption and oil products consumption to economic growth. Likewise, there is a unidirectional Granger-causal relationship from economic growth to solid fuels consumption and natural gas consumption. Estimation of error correction models reveal that in the short run and long run, there is bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. Likewise, in the long run, a unidirectional Granger-causality runs from economic growth to natural gas consumption. Therefore, in the cases that unidirectional Granger-causality runs from energy consumption to economic growth, energy conservation policies should be designed carefully in a way that utilization of such policies doesnʹt have diminishing effects on economic growth. Accordingly, we suggest a set of "optimal usage" and "efficient consumption" policies in economic sectors. In the cases that unidirectional Granger-causality runs from economic growth to energy consumption, energy conservation policies could be implemented without impeding economic growth.