عوامل موثر بر نرخ ارز واقعي در ايران (رهيافت خود رگرسيون برداري )

The Effective Factors on Real Exchange Rate in Iran (Using Vector Auto- Regressive Model)

This paper analyzes the short-run and long-run relationships of the effective factors on real exchange rate in Iranʹs economy during 1959-2001. In this way, it first analyzes the exchange rate policies in Iran and then provides the theoretical model of the effective factors on exchange rate used for an oil structured economy, like Iran. It also proceeds to study the determinant factors in short-run and long-run behaviors of real exchange rate using vector auto- regressive model. The results reveal that the increase in budget deficit, terms of trade, and money supply had an upward effect on real exchange rate and, on the contrary, the increase in import tax variable, net foreign assets, and oil prices, had a downward effect.