محاسبه شكاف توليد ناخالص داخلي فصلي و تاثير عوامل اسمي بر آن در ايران

The Determination of Seasonal Output Gap and Effects of Nominal Variable on it, VAR Model (Case Study: Iran)

In this paper we examine the effects of nominal variables on the gap of GDP in Iran. The used data is seasonal GDP whiz is computed by traditional methods. In addition, potential GDP is obtained through Prescott filtering. The model is estimated for GDP gap, inflation, market exchange rate growth, and liquidity growth through VAR methods. The results, show that nominal variable shocks influence GDP gap in Iran are in the same direction. Stability of these shocks indicates their long-run effect on the system. Thus, for economic growth, the economic policy must concentrate on production increase, and this would increase the long run production.