بررسي عوامل موثر بر حاشيه ارزي بازار موازي ارز، نرخ ارز حقيقي و سطح عمومي قيمت در اقتصاد ايران

Determinants of the Parallel Market Premium, Real Exchange Rate and Price Level in Iranian Economy

The purpose of this paper is to find out simultaneously the determinants of the parallel market premium, real exchange rate and price level by using a macroeconomic model. Using the 3SLS regression technique, the paper shows that money, expected inflation rate, net return of foreign exchange, investment, public budget and oil revenues have significant effects on the parallel market premium, real exchange rate and price level. Our simulation results show that devaluation of domestic currency raises prices. It also lowers the premium in the short run but not it the long run. The nominal devaluation leads to real devaluation in the first year but will cause the real exchange rate to be overvalued at the end. This policy will also lower output and raise domestic currency denominated oil revenues and official foreign reserves. An important implication of the empirical results of the paper is that government has to maintain discipline in fiscal and monetary policy to be able to stabilize the parallel market premium, real exchange rate and prices.