برآورد تاثير با وقفه تغييرات حجم نقدينگي بر سطح تورم در اقتصاد ايران

Distributed Lag Effect of Money Changes on the Rate of Inflation in Iran

The distributed lag effect of a unit change in one of the explanatory variabls on the dependent variable is one of the major shortcomings of the standard linear egression model. The long run or error correction equation, wich specifies a casual relationship between the inflation and its determinants, states that a unit change in one of the explanatory variables can result in a change in the rate of inflation only during the period specified by the model. But in practice, changes in, for example, the countryʹs money supply may affect inflation rate over a long period This paper aims to estimate the adjustment path of the rate of inflation following exogenous monetary shocks. To do so, we use an ARDL model and time series data for the period 1961-2005 in the Iranian economy. The results indicate that one percent, once-and-for-all increase in money supply positively affects the rate of inflation during three years. One percent increase in money supply at lime I results in 0.42 percent in current period, 0.19 percent at time i+1 and 0.27 percent at time t+2 increase in the rate of inflation.