بررسي عوامل موثر بر تغيير انتشار دي اكسيدكربن در اقتصاد ايران

An analysis of Factors that Influence Carbon Dioxide Emission in Iranʹs Economy

Significant increase of greenhouse gases, especially Carbon Dioxide in recent decades due to industrial growth and development has attracted attention to the serious threat this poses to sustainable development. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to changes in C02 emissions. The complete decomposition method is used to review factors responsible for C02 emissions in major economic sectors of Iran during 1994-2007. To this end the impact of four factors namely pollution coefficient, energy intensity, structural changes and economic activity on C02 emissions changes are analyzed. The results of aggregate analysis show that economic activity is the largest contributor to C02 increase while structural changes have the least effect on carbon emissions. The pollution coefficient and energy intensity have lesser impacts on C02 emissions. The sectoral analysis shows different results based on each sectorʹs characteristics. The economic activity effect is positive in all sectors. Sectors which have decreasing share in total GDP show negative structural effect and consequently have contributed to lowering of C02 emissions. JEL Classification: Q4, Q54