اثر سياست مالي بر متغيرهاي كلان اقتصاد ايران: رهيافتي از روش خود رگرسيون برداري

Effects of Fiscial Policy on Macroeconomic Variables: VAR Approach

This study aims to survey the effects of income tax, current and capital expenditures as means of fiscal policy on macro economic variables such as GDP, total investment, private consumption and inflation in Iranʹs economy using quarterly data during 1994:2- 2006:1. In this field model of vector auto regression (VAR) has been used. Results indicate that tax, current and capital expenditures have positive effects on GDP and real interest rate has negative effects on GDP. Construction expenditures has a low share in investment fluctuations. Also, concerning the high share of current expenditures and income tax in GDP fluctuations, it would be preferable to use the construction expenditures as a policy instrument. Regarding the results, one cannot expect that the government current expenditures and taxes would ensure the sufficient effects on economic stability.