بررسي رابطه رشد اقتصادي و آلودگي زيست محيطي با استفاده از يك مدل شبيه سازي پويا

Analysis of the Relationship between the Economic Growth and Environment Pollution Using a Dynamic Simulation Model

The interaction between economic growth and quality of environment is a controversial Issue that has attracted a lot of attention. Most of the empirical studies have concentrated on the relation between per rapita income and a variety of pollutants. This paper, for the first time in Iran, presents a dynamic simulation model for the quantitative analysis of environment policy and technical progress. This model simulates the emission path by energy demand and supply equations. Energy demand is considered as a function of income, price and population and is estimated by ordinary Least Square. In energy supply two separate equations are considered; one presents existing polluting technologies and the other one emphasis the low- polluting technologies. The model was used to develop scenarios for PM, SOX, and C02 abatement in Iran. The results show that income is still an important variable in determining pollution and substitution of natural gas with oil products as an environmental policy, which can reduce the emissions in shorter time than the Environmental Kuznets Curves(EKC) of economic growth and pollution. But it doesnʹt mean we can use natural gas beyond a normal level. Then we should adapt the appropriate price policy and invest in clean technology to reduce pollution while raising income.