بروز بيماري هلندي در بخش كشاورزي ايران 1386-1367

The Incidence of Dutch Disease in the Agriculture Sector of Iran 1989-2008

Abstract This paper examines the incidence of Dutch Disease symptoms in the agriculture sector of Iran, by applying SVAR modeling to quarterly aata of twenty years span, froml 989-2008 our findings do not reveal any significant relation between oil prices, and value added of agriculture sector, but indicate a significant negative effect of oil price on the relative price of agricultural products. Therefore, the incidence of Dutch Disease cannot be rejected. Although it seems that protective measures, in some extent, have been succeeded in insulating the production from harmful effects of decrease in the relative prices, but these measures, in no way will ensure the future development of the agriculture sector.