بررسي آثار تغيير اقليم تحت سناريوهاي مختلف بر روي آب زيرزميني دشت كرمان

Study of climate change effects under different scenarios on groundwater in Kerman Plain

پپديده تغيير اقليم يكي از مهمترين چالش‌هاي زيست‌محيطي است كه بر روي منابع پايه از جمله منابع آب زيرزميني تاثيرات سويي دارد. با توجه به اهميت موضوع در اين پژوهش براي بررسي اثرات تغيير اقليم بر‌ روي آب زيرزميني دشت كرمان از مدل اقليمي LARS-WG و مدل آب زيرزميني GMS استفاده گرديد. سناريوهاي انتشار اقليمي A2، A1B و B1 از مدل HADCM3 در دوره زماني طي سال‌هاي 1410- 1390مورد بررسي قرار گرفت و براي بررسي اثر تغيير اقليم بر افت آب زيرزميني با استفاده از نرم افزار GMS سطح آب زيرزميني براي دوره 1409-1391 پيش‌بيني گرديد و اثر سناريوهاي اقليمي بر روي آن اعمال گرديد. براي مدل‌سازي آب زيرزميني، مهر 1381 به‌عنوان حالت پايدار به مدل معرفي گرديد و مقادير هدايت هيدروليكي و تغذيه و شرايط مرزي براورد گرديد. سپس مدل براي سال‌هاي 1381 تا 1392 براي شرايط ناپايدار اجرا گرديد و ميزان سطح آب زيرزميني براي سال‌هاي 1393 تا 1409 تحت سناريوهاي مختلف اقليمي پيش‌بيني گرديد. نتايج پژوهش نشان داد كه متوسط افت آب زيرزميني در هر چهار سناريو به ترتيب براي سناريوهاي اقليمي A2، A1B و B1 در سناريوي اول (0/86-، 5/85- و 9/19-)، سناريوي دوم (9/26-، 9/36-و 9/49-)، سناريوي سوم (12/09-، 12/21-و 12/28-)

The phenomenon of climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges that has been increased by the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and has negative impacts on base resources such as groundwater resources. Therefore, it is essential that research is conducted to understand the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the future period, to avoid the deterioration of the situation by proper management. Considering the importance of the subject in this study, the climatic model of LARS-WG and the GMS groundwater model were used to study the effects of climate change on groundwater under different scenarios in Kerman plain. In this regard, the climatic emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1 of HADCM3 model was investigated in the period of 2011-2030 and to study the effect of climate change on groundwater drop, groundwater level was predicted using GMS software for the period 2012-2030 and the effect of climatic scenarios was studied on it. In order to groundwater modeling, the height of water in the piezometers was introduced to the model as a steady state in October 2002 and the values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge and boundary conditions were estimated. Then, the model was run for unsteady conditions for 2002 to 2013, and the groundwater level was predicted under different climatic scenarios for 2014-2030. The results showed that the average of groundwater drop in all four scenarios was -0.86, -5.85 and -9.19 meters (the first scenario), -9.26, -9.36 and -9.49 meters (the second scenario), -12.09, -12.21 and -12.28 meters (the third scenario) and -15.43, 15.55 and -15.58 meters (the fourth scenario) for A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, respectivelyThe phenomenon of climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges that has been increased by the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and has negative impacts on base resources such as groundwater resources. Therefore, it is essential that research is conducted to understand the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the future period, to avoid the deterioration of the situation by proper management. Considering the importance of the subject in this study, the climatic model of LARS-WG and the GMS groundwater model were used to study the effects of climate change on groundwater under different scenarios in Kerman plain. In this regard, the climatic emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1 of HADCM3 model was investigated in the period of 2011-2030 and to study the effect of climate change on groundwater drop, groundwater level was predicted using GMS software for the period 2012-2030 and the effect of climatic scenarios was studied on it. In order to groundwater modeling, the height of water in the piezometers was introduced to the model as a steady state in October 2002 and the values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge and boundary conditions were estimated. Then, the model was run for unsteady conditions for 2002 to 2013, and the groundwater level was predicted under different climatic scenarios for 2014-2030. The results showed that the average of groundwater drop in all four scenarios was -0.86, -5.85 and -9.19 meters (the first scenario), -9.26, -9.36 and -9.49 meters (the second scenario), -12.09, -12.21 and -12.28 meters (the third scenario) and -15.43, 15.55 and -15.58 meters (the fourth scenario) for A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, respectivelyThe phenomenon of climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges that has been increased by the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and has negative impacts on base resources such as groundwater resources. Therefore, it is essential that research is conducted to understand the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the future period, to avoid the deterioration of the situation by proper management. Considering the importance of the subject in this study, the climatic model of LARS-WG and the GMS groundwater model were used to study the effects of climate change on groundwater under different scenarios in Kerman plain. In this regard, the climatic emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1 of HADCM3 model was investigated in the period of 2011-2030 and to study the effect of climate change on groundwater drop, groundwater level was predicted using GMS software for the period 2012-2030 and the effect of climatic scenarios was studied on it. In order to groundwater modeling, the height of water in the piezometers was introduced to the model as a steady state in October 2002 and the values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge and boundary conditions were estimated. Then, the model was run for unsteady conditions for 2002 to 2013, and the groundwater level was predicted under different climatic scenarios for 2014-2030. The results showed that the average of groundwater drop in all four scenarios was -0.86, -5.85 and -9.19 meters (the first scenario), -9.26, -9.36 and -9.49 meters (the second scenario), -12.09, -12.21 and -12.28 meters (the third scenario) and -15.43, 15.55 and -15.58 meters (the fourth scenario) for A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, respectivelyThe phenomenon of climate change is one of the most important environmental challenges that has been increased by the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and has negative impacts on base resources such as groundwater resources. Therefore, it is essential that research is conducted to understand the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the future period, to avoid the deterioration of the situation by proper management. Considering the importance of the subject in this study, the climatic model of LARS-WG and the GMS groundwater model were used to study the effects of climate change on groundwater under different scenarios in Kerman plain. In this regard, the climatic emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1 of HADCM3 model was investigated in the period of 2011-2030 and to study the effect of climate change on groundwater drop, groundwater level was predicted using GMS software for the period 2012-2030 and the effect of climatic scenarios was studied on it. In order to groundwater modeling, the height of water in the piezometers was introduced to the model as a steady state in October 2002 and the values of hydraulic conductivity and recharge and boundary conditions were estimated. Then, the model was run for unsteady conditions for 2002 to 2013, and the groundwater level was predicted under different climatic scenarios for 2014-2030. The results showed that the average of groundwater drop in all four scenarios was -0.86, -5.85 and -9.19 meters (the first scenario), -9.26, -9.36 and -9.49 meters (the second scenario), -12.09, -12.21 and -12.28 meters (the third scenario) and -15.43, 15.55 and -15.58 meters (the fourth scenario) for A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively]>