Abstract :
In the assessment of success of new analgesic drugs over the past 50 years (Kissin, Anesth Analg 110:780–789, 2010) we observed a difference in the publication response to a new drug between biomedical journals in general and top journals: number of published articles on a drug increased (and declined) more rapidly in the top journals. Based on this phenomenon we present a new publication indicator—the Top Journal Selectivity Index (TJSI). It represents the ratio between the number of all types of articles in the top 20 biomedical journals and the number of articles in all (>5,000) journals covered by Medline, over 5 years after a drug’s introduction. Ten analgesics developed during the period 1986–2009 were selected for analysis. Three publication indices were used for assessment: the number of all types of articles presented in Medline, the number of articles covering only randomized controlled trials (RCT), and the Top Journal Selectivity Index. We also assessed the success score in the development of these analgesics based on the following criteria: novelty of molecular target, analgesic efficacy, and response by the pharmaceutical market. The relationships between the publication indices and analgesic’s success score were determined with the use of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Positive relationship was found only with the Top Journal Selectivity Index (r = 0.876, p < 0.001). We suggest that this index can predict success in drug development at least in the field of analgesics.
