Brazilian scientific production, financial support, established investigators and doctoral graduates

In the near future, Brazil is expected to face a number of challenges with regards to economic and social development, and scientific production is a critical aspect of this development process. Over the past 30 years, there has been an almost 18-fold increase in the number of brazilian papers published, up from about 2,000 in 1980 to more than 35,000 in 2009. In this study we analyze the evolution of scientific production in terms of input (resources and permanent investigators) and output (scientific papers and doctorate graduates). We evaluate whether structural investments and the number of investigators at universities are both able to explain the increase in the number of papers, by investigating the relationships among growth rates in investments and the quantity of the papers published, as well as the number of doctorate graduates and active permanent investigators. As an indication of the fluctuations in investments pertaining to academic research, we consider the budget history of the largest Brazilian federal agencies charged with providing academic grants. We observe that the burgeoning number of papers has occurred independently of investments and the number of established investigators, thus suggesting an increase in the efficiency of Brazilian scientific output. Moreover, this increase in efficiency has occurred in conjunction with an increased number of Doctoral graduates per year. In this context, we propose that an evaluation of the academic structure is necessary in order to ascertain the risks of this increased “efficiency”. Moreover, the recent cut of over US$ 1 billion announced by the Brazilian government may jeopardize the quality of scientific output in the future.