The emergence of plate tectonics and the Kuhnian model of paradigm shift: a bibliometric case study based on the Anna Karenina principle

How scientific progress functions in detail and what the specific prerequisites for scientific breakthroughs in a given research area are, is still unclear today. According to philosopher of science Thomas S. Kuhn, scientific advancement takes place via paradigm shift. As a principle supplementing Kuhn’s theory, we proposed the Anna Karenina principle: a new paradigm can be successful only when several key prerequisites are fulfilled (e.g., verified by means of independent data and methods). If any one of these prerequisites is not fulfilled, the paradigm will not be successful. Aiming at investigating the schema of paradigm shift supplemented by the Anna Karenina principle with the aid of concrete examples from science, in this study we analyze one of the most important scientific revolutions: the shift from a fixed to a mobile worldview in geoscientific thinking. This paradigm shift will be explained based on key papers that played a decisive role, selected carefully from reviews in the literature. The account of the development will be complemented by empirical findings that were produced based on publication and citation data using the software Histcite.