Probabilistic model for random uncertainties in steady state rolling contact

Wear phenomena involve a large number of physical and mechanical parameters which are not always well known or controlled during relative movement between two bodies. Numerous industrial applications necessitate an evaluation of technological component life time and wear modelling often fails to give accurate estimation. We use the classical Archardʹs wear model where wear is related to dissipated power. It appears that great dispersion can occur in the estimation of dissipated power related to a lack of knowledge of certain parameters. We present here a probabilistic approach of the contact problem resolution. We consider the specific contact problem in the case of steady state rolling. A wear apparatus has been used to test different materials and we use the simplified model Fastsim to evaluate slip and tangential traction in the contact zone. For each parameter of the simulation, we construct a probabilistic density function with the only information available. A Monte-Carlo method is implemented and the resolution of numerous cases allows the dissipated energy to be evaluated as a mean value and a confidence region for 95% viability.