Simulating groundwater flow and runoff for the Oro Moraine aquifer system. Part II. Automated calibration and mass balance calculations

A steady-state groundwater model of the Oro Moraine aquifer system in Central Ontario, Canada, is developed. The model is used to identify the role of baseflow in the water balance of the Minesing Swamp, a 70 km2 wetland of international significance. Lithologic descriptions are used to develop a hydrostratigraphic conceptual model of the aquifer system. The numerical model uses long-term averages to represent temporal variations of the flow regime and includes a mechanism to redistribute recharge in response to near-surface geologic heterogeneity. The model is calibrated to water level and streamflow measurements through inverse modeling. Observed baseflow and runoff quantities validate the water mass balance of the numerical model and provide information on the fraction of the water surplus that contributes to groundwater flow. The inverse algorithm is used to compare alternative model zonation scenarios, illustrating the power of non-linear regression in calibrating complex aquifer systems. The adjoint method is used to identify sensitive recharge areas for groundwater discharge to the Minesing Swamp. Model results suggest that nearby urban development will have a significant impact on baseflow to the swamp. Although the direct baseflow contribution makes up only a small fraction of the total inflow to the swamp, it provides an important steady influx of water over relatively large portions of the wetland. Urban development will also impact baseflow to the headwaters of local streams. The model provides valuable insight into crucial characteristics of the aquifer system although definite conclusions regarding details of its water budget are difficult to draw given current data limitations. The model therefore also serves to guide future data collection and studies of sub-areas within the basin.