An analysis of the feasibility of long-range streamflow forecasting for Colombia using El Niño–Southern Oscillation indicators

This paper investigates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and the discharge of Colombian rivers and analyzes the possibility of using this relationship to forecast streamflows. Systematic cross-correlations are performed in the exploratory analysis to determine the lag time between ENSO and its effects on Colombian streamflows and the ENSO indicators with the strongest relationship with Colombian streamflows. Several streamflow periods, ENSO indicators, periods for each ENSO indicator, and lag times are considered. The authors demonstrate that long-range streamflow forecasting for Colombia based on ENSO indicators is possible, and that the best ENSO indicators for predicting streamflows in Colombia are the MEI, the SOI, and the Niño 4 sea surface temperature anomalies.