Departure of migrating European robins, Erithacus rubecula, from a stopover site in relation to wind and rain

Migratory birds replenishing their fuel stores have to decide when to leave their stopover site for the next flight bout. We studied whether the decision to leave a stopover site depends on wind and rain conditions. From capture-recapture data of 1153 European robins collected during three autumns at a stopover site in Switzerland, we estimated the daily emigration probability with a newly developed multistate capture -recapture model that accounts for the occurrence of transients. We tested whether the variation in the daily emigration probabilities can be explained by wind speed, wind direction (both on the ground and 300 m above ground) or rain. Variation in emigration probability was largely explained by variation in wind at 300 m and rain. The emigration probability was highest (0.5) during nights with no or weak (<1.5 m/s) winds at 300 m and no rain, intermediate (0.15-0.2) on nights without rain and with medium wind (>1.5 m/s), and on nights with weak winds (<1.5 m/s) and rain; and almost zero during nights with rain and strong winds at 300 m. Wind direction at 300 m and wind conditions (speed and direction) on the ground had no influence on departure decision. We suggest that birds may consider cues other than wind speed at ground level to predict wind speed at higher altitudes, and that they consider wind direction only when aloft by selecting an optimal flight altitude. Wind speed aloft and rain appeared to be significant factors that synchronize bird migration spatially and temporally.