Third-Country Effects on the Market Shares of U.S. Wheat in Asian Countries

An import demand model, augmented with third country effect variables, is developed to examine the effects of strong U.S. dollar, volatility of the U.S. dollar, and competition among the exporting countries on the shares of U.S. wheat in Asian markets. In the empirical model, the dependent variable is the market shares of U.S. wheat. Explanatory variables include wheat prices of exporting countries; exchange rates between the importing and exporting countries, and volatilities of the exchange rates. Panel estimation results show that the U.S. currency value and volatility, Australian wheat price, and the volatilities of Canadian and Australian currency values have significant effects on the U.S. market shares.