The sensitivity of the ESA DELTA model Original Research Article

The debris environment long term analysis (DELTA) model, developed by QinetiQ for the European Space Agency (ESA), allows the future projection of the debris environment throughout Earth orbit. To ensure a sound basis for such future projections, and consequently for assessing the effectiveness of various mitigation measures, it is essential that the sensitivity of the model is examined. This paper discusses the sensitivity of the DELTA model to changes in key model parameters and assumptions. Specifically, the variation in future traffic rates, including the deployment of satellite constellations, and the variation in the break-up model and criteria used to simulate future explosion and collision events.