Centennial changes in solar activity and the response of galactic cosmic rays Original Research Article

There is a growing consensus that the eleven year-modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) resulting from solar activity is related to interplanetary propagating diffusive barriers (PDBs). The source of these PDBs is not well understood and numerical models describing GCR modulation simulate their effect by scaling the diffusion tensor to the interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF). The implications of a century-scale change in solar wind speed and open solar flux, for numerical modelling of GCR modulation and the reconstruction of GCR variations over the last hundred years are discussed. The dominant role of the solar non-axisymmetric magnetic field in both forcing longitudinal solar wind speed fluctuations at solar maximum and in increasing the IMF is discussed in the context of a long-term rise in the open solar magnetic flux.