The fast debris evolution model Original Research Article

The ‘particles-in-a-box’ (PIB) model introduced by Talent [Talent, D.L. Analytic model for orbital debris environmental management. J. Spacecraft Rocket, 29 (4), 508–513, 1992.] removed the need for computer-intensive Monte Carlo simulation to predict the gross characteristics of an evolving debris environment. The PIB model was described using a differential equation that allows the stability of the low Earth orbit (LEO) environment to be tested by a straightforward analysis of the equation’s coefficients. As part of an ongoing research effort to investigate more efficient approaches to evolutionary modelling and to develop a suite of educational tools, a new PIB model has been developed. The model, entitled Fast Debris Evolution (FADE), employs a first-order differential equation to describe the rate at which new objects ⩾10 cm are added and removed from the environment. Whilst Talent [Talent, D.L. Analytic model for orbital debris environmental management. J. Spacecraft Rocket, 29 (4), 508–513, 1992.] based the collision theory for the PIB approach on collisions between gas particles and adopted specific values for the parameters of the model from a number of references, the form and coefficients of the FADE model equations can be inferred from the outputs of future projections produced by high-fidelity models, such as the DAMAGE model.