Reentry survival analysis of tumbling metallic hollow cylinder Original Research Article

The survival of orbital debris reentering the Earth’s atmosphere is considered. The numerical approach of NASA’s Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) is reviewed, and a new equation accounting for reradiation heat loss of hollow cylindrical objects is presented. Based on these, a code called Survivability Analysis Program for Atmospheric Reentry (SAPAR) has been developed, and the new equation for reradiation heat loss is validated. Using this equation in conjunction with the formulation used in ORSAT, a comparative case study on the Delta-II second stage cylindrical tank is given, demonstrating that the analysis using the proposed equation is in good agreement with the actual recovered object when a practical value for thermal emissivity is used. A detailed explanation of the revised formulation is given, and additional simulation results are presented. Finally, discussions are made to address the applicability of the proposed equation to be incorporated in future survival analyses of orbital debris.