Modeling microbial kinetics as a function of temperature: Evaluation of dynamic experiments to identify the growth/inactivation interface Original Research Article

A previous implementation of optimal dynamic experiments for the identification of the Cardinal Temperature Model with Inflection, which describes the temperature effect on the microbial growth rate, revealed that the maximum growth temperature image can only be estimated accurately when temperatures close to the true image are included. Here, alternative approaches are considered. First, it is evaluated if the informative character of the optimal experiments can be improved by changing the temperature input structure. Simulations show that a simple profile, i.e., a constant phase followed by a linear temperature change and a second constant phase, is the most informative taking into account computational requirements and practical implementations. Second, experiments in which the temperature crosses the growth/inactivation interface are evaluated. The simulation study illustrates that the accuracy of image largely depends on the selected temperature profile. A reliable image is obtained when the initial temperature is slightly lower than the true image. Starting above image result in larger uncertainties. Generally, information at temperatures close to image is required for an accurate image estimate.