A new estimator for sensitivity analysis of model output: An application to the e-business readiness composite indicator

In this paper we propose and test a generalisation of the method originally proposed by Sobol’, and recently extended by Saltelli, to estimate the first-order and total effect sensitivity indices. Exploiting the symmetries and the dualities of the formulas, we obtain additional estimates of first-order and total indices at no extra computational cost. We test the technique on a case study involving the construction of a composite indicator of e-business readiness, which is part of the initiative “e-Readiness of European enterprises” of the European Commission “e-Europe 2005” action plan. The method is used to assess the contribution of uncertainties in (a) the weights of the component indicators and (b) the imputation of missing data on the composite indicator values for several European countries.