Modelling the spatial distribution of two important South African plantation forestry pathogens

Pathogens, pests and diseases impact heavily on commercial plantation forestry in South Africa, and must thus be considered in any diversified and adaptive management approach. Two important fungal pathogens of Pinus and Eucalyptus species, respectively, are Sphaeropsis sapinea and Cryphonectria cubensis. The aim of this study was to explore the use of bioclimatic modelling to predict the habitat distribution for these pathogens, and to consider potential distribution patterns under conditions of climate change. High-risk areas identified for Sphaeropsis dieback coincide with the summer rainfall hail belt, emphasising the need for planting resistant Pinus spp. in these regions. A much smaller area of South Africa is predicted to be suitable for the occurrence of C. cubensis than for S. sapinea, but a range shift westward in suitable habitat for C. cubensis is predicted under a climate change scenario. Of concern is that many of these areas are currently being planted with disease susceptible Eucalyptus clones. These preliminary results, and further refinement of the model, will lay a valuable foundation for future risk assessment and strategic management planning in the South African forestry industry.