Probabilistic approach for durability design of reinforced concrete in marine environment

A probabilistic approach to durability is proposed for the design of reinforced cover of a concrete immersed in sea water. It uses a non-linear chloride diffusion model for a saturated medium, which is first exposed with its physical parameters. Parameter variability is estimated and used through the probabilistic approach to assess the probability of reaching a critical chloride concentration near the reinforcement for a given service life. Based on the concrete formulation and the cement chemical composition, the model parameters are evaluated with their associated random distribution. The corrosion risk is then estimated through the Hasofer–Lind reliability index. Currently, the methodology is available for Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and for saturated media. A practical application is proposed to underline the applicability of the methodology. The decrease in the reliability index with time is computed for a cover depth coming from actual design rules. The probabilistic sensitivity factors are also assessed and show the importance of some model parameters called “durability indicators”.