Dynamic simulation of the Dead Sea

The Dead Sea is a hypersaline terminal lake located in the Rift Valley between Jordan and Israel. In this work a generalised mathematical model describing the behaviour of the Dead Sea has been developed. The model established the condition of the Sea by evaluating a series of ordinary differential equations describing mass balances on the water and major chemical species in the Sea. The Sea was modelled as a two-layer system. The model was validated by comparing its predictions to measured level records. The results obtained highlighted the importance of detailed evaporation modelling, showed the necessity to model the Sea as a two-layer system, validated the usage of average distribution data to estimate the flowrates of rivers, and justified ignoring diffusion effects in further modelling. The model predicted that in the case of continuing current conditions, the level will continue to decline, at a decelerating rate, because the area and evaporation rate are both decreasing. Under these conditions, the model shows that the salinity of both layers will continue to increase, and that seasonal stratification and seasonal crystallisation of gypsum and aragonite will continue.