Simulating pumping-induced regional land subsidence with the use of InSAR and field data in the Toluca Valley, Mexico

A multidisciplinary approach is presented here for quantifying land subsidence in a heavily pumped aquifer system with complex stratigraphy. The methodology consists in incorporating Terzaghi’s 1D instantaneous compaction principle into a 3D groundwater flow model that is then applied and calibrated to reproduce observed hydraulic heads and compaction for the Toluca Valley, Mexico. Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (D-InSAR), a generated 3D-geological model, extensometers, monitoring wells, and available literature are used to constrain the model. The D-InSAR measured subsidence, extensometers, and numerical simulations of subsidence agree relatively well. Simulations show that since regional subsidence began in the mid 1960s there has been up to 2 m of subsidence in the industrial corridor, where heavy pumping and thick clay layers are found. This study shows that an approach using various sources of data is useful in estimating and constraining the vertical component of the inelastic skeletal specific storage.