Probabilistic modeling of chloride-induced corrosion in concrete structures using first- and second-order reliability methods

Concrete structures are subjected to chloride-induced corrosion that can lead to shortened service life. Reliable predictions of life cycle performance of concrete structures are critical to the optimization of their life cycle design and maintenance to minimize their life cycle costs. This paper presents two simplified semi-analytical probabilistic models based on the first- and second-order reliability methods to model the uncertainty of the key parameters including surface chloride concentration, chloride threshold, cover depth and diffusion coefficient, which govern the chloride ingress into concrete and corrosion of reinforcing steel. A case study of a reinforced concrete highway bridge deck is used to illustrate the capability and efficiency of these simplified probabilistic models in modeling the uncertainty and predicting the time-dependent probability of corrosion. The models enable to quantify the impact of the different governing parameters on probability of corrosion and service life, which can be used to develop cost-effective management strategies.