Detecting important categorical land changes while accounting for persistence

The cross-tabulation matrix is a fundamental starting point in the analysis of land change, but many scientists fail to analyze the matrix according to its various components and thus fail to gain as much insight as possible concerning the potential processes that determine a pattern of land change. This paper examines the cross-tabulation matrix to assess the total change of land categories according to two pairs of components: net change and swap, as well as gross gains and gross losses. Analysis of these components can distinguish between a clearly systematic landscape transition and a seemingly random landscape transition. Multiple resolution analysis provides additional information concerning the distances over which land change occurs. An example of change among four land categories in central Massachusetts illustrates the methods. These methods enable scientists to focus on the strongest signals of systematic landscape transitions, which is necessary ultimately to link pattern to process.