Geographic dimensions of enduring rivalries

In this study, we show that our understanding of rivalries can be enhanced by a greater consideration of the connection between this phenomenon and geographic factors. More specifically, we seek to understand the impacts of territoriality (i.e. disputes over land control) and space (i.e. contiguity) on rivalry. Prior works tell us that these factors are important in individual militarized conflicts, but until now we did not know whether they also impact patterns of recurring conflicts. Although we find that both territorial disputes and contiguity matter little for rivalries in general, we do demonstrate that both factors’ importance grows as we consider the more serious types of rivalries. In other words, most rivalries are not fought over territory or between neighbors, but a substantial portion of proto- and enduring rivalries are conditioned by territorial disputes and proximity. We also investigate whether disputes over land and contiguity have impacts on conflict density, rivalry development, and rivalry severity. We show that both factors increase the frequency of conflict and the chances of serious rivalry development. In contrast, rivalry severity is more of a function of the underlying issue the rivals disagree over (i.e. territorial control) than of opportunity to fight (i.e. proximity).