Turnout and the local age distribution: examining political participation across space and time

In this paper, we examine the political effects of local age distributions, with an eye to understanding geographic variations in voter turnout. The Depression era birth cohort is now elderly and will soon make a final exit from the electorate through mortality. The Baby Boom generation is quickly closing on retirement. These older generations are highly participatory for both generational and life-cycle reasons, but the enormous post-Boomer age cohorts show signs of being less participatory. These generalizations about political activity within age cohorts raise questions about the extent to which local turnout levels are affected by the relative size of these groups in local electorates. We find that aggregate local turnout is highly sensitive to the age distribution, rising with the percentage over age 60, falling sharply with increases in the percentage between age 18 and 29. We find the greatest effects in those counties with the highest population growth rates, and we argue that the age gap between the general population and the active electorate will be greatest in these fast-growing locales. We conclude with some reflections about the importance of mobilizing younger voters who have not yet established a habit of voting.