Remeasuring and rethinking social cleavages in Russia: Continuity and changes in electoral geography 1917–1995

This paper examines the role of social cleavages in creating spatial associations between major pre-Revolutionary and post-Soviet political parties at the guberniya-level statistical aggregates. The paper begins with a theoretical discussion of social cleavages and a literature review of cleavage theory research applied to various Russian elections. The analysis of spatial associations between the pre-Revolutionary/post-Soviet parties involved elaborating a new measurement framework, creating a spatial database using GIS, transformation of thematic social–economic–geographic attributes, calculating the strength of the linear relationship among regional spatial units and utilizing probit statistical models. This research empirically supports the hypothesis that contemporary Russian parties are expressions of rediscovered cleavages as well as of conflicts engendered by the Tsarist and Soviet and post-Soviet periods of development. It appeared that the constituent assembly election of 1917 and parliamentary election of 1995 tend to be “maintaining” elections for the liberals. The situation appeared different for the communitarian parties. A critical realignment – significant changes in the left electorate and a split in this electorate did occur. The 1995 election results indicate that only parties with developed networks and local and regional organizations faired well in the election and that nationalization of Russian political life was still weak in 1995.