Potential radionuclide transport pathways from seafloor dumpsites: Kamchatka region of the North Pacific Ocean

Encapsulated nuclear waste materials, dumped by Russia, are present at two deepwater seafloor locations in the offshore north-west Pacific Ocean, south-east of the Kamchatka Peninsula. This paper assesses potential pathways by which these wastes might, if released from their containers, disperse away from the dumpsites and through the surrounding ocean. A review of large-scale ocean circulation theory and of field and model results suggests that mean abyssal currents are north-eastward to eastward from the dumpsite locations and would advect leaking materials toward the north-eastern Pacific. Results of advective and diffusive horizontal plume transport models are consistent with this sense of flow. Trajectory speeds are, however, subject to considerable uncertainty. Our results suggest that as little as 5 years or as long as 100 years might be required for material to be transported from the dump sites to the north-east Pacific. Dilution by 4 or 5 orders of magnitude is predicted during this transit. Vertical mixing or upwelling are necessary in order to transport contaminants upward from north-east Pacific abyssal waters to the near-surface layers before they can potentially impact productive coastal regions, such as those off Alaska. Information concerning such upwelling mechanisms is inadequate for estimation of rates or to identify geographical areas that might be at risk.