Eutrophication in the Polish coastal zone: the past, present status and future scenarios

In the Baltic Sea eutrophication processes have accelerated in the past 50 years of the 20th century and presently there exists a major ecological problem for this sea. The Polish coastal zone of the southern Baltic Sea is the recipient of riverine inputs from two major sources, namely the Odra and Vistula, as well as a number of smaller rivers along the central coast. Hence, the entire coastal zone remains under severe anthropogenic pressure. The variability of nutrient concentrations, especially the winter nutrient pool in the euphotic zone, summer level of total nitrogen and total phosphorus, together with such eutrophication indicators as water oversaturation with oxygen and the summer oxygen minimum, were analysed in the data time series 1959–2001. The temporal trends were investigated using linear regression and the non-parametric Whirsch test. The future characteristics of the Baltic Sea are discussed taking into account the development of driving forces.