Carbon sequestration potential of recommended management practices for paddy soils of China, 1980–2050

Chinaʹs rice paddies, accounting for 19% of the worldʹs total, play an important role in soil carbon (C) sequestration. In order to reduce uncertainties from upscaling spatial processes of the DeNitrification–DeComposition (DNDC) model for improving the understanding of C sequestration under recommended management practices (RMPs), we parameterized the DNDC model with a 1:1,000,000 polygonal soil database to estimate how RMPs influence potential C sequestration of the top 30 cm of Chinese paddy soils and to identify which management practices have the greatest potential to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) in these soils. These practices include reduced/no tillage, increasing crop residue return, and increasing manure applications. A baseline and eleven RMP scenarios were projected from 2009 to 2080, including traditional and conservation tillage, increasing crop residue return, increasing manure incorporation, and the combination of these practices. The results indicated that C sequestration potential under modeled RMPs increased compared to the baseline scenario, and varied greatly from 29.2 to 847.7 Tg C towards the end of the study period with an average rate of 0.7 to 20.2 Tg C yr− 1. In general, increasing crop residue return was associated with higher rates of C sequestration when compared to increasing manure application or practicing conservation tillage. The simulations demonstrated that the most effective soil C sequestration strategy probably involves the implementation of a combination of RMPs, and that they vary by location.