Optimum advertising policy over time for subscriber service innovations in the presence of service cost learning and customers’ disadoption

On the theoretical side, this paper characterizes qualitatively optimal advertising policy for new subscriber services. A monopolistic market is analyzed first for which customers’ disadoption, discounting of future profits streams and a service cost learning curve are allowed. After characterizing the optimal policy for a general diffusion model, the results pertaining to a specific diffusion model for which advertising affects the coefficient of innovation that incorporates the disadoption rate are reported. The results of the theoretical research show that the advertising policy of the service firm in the presence of customers’ disadoption could be very different from the same when disadoption is ignored. On the empirical side, four alternative diffusion models are estimated and their predictive powers using a one-step-ahead forecasting procedure compared. The diffusion data analyzed are related to the Canadian cable TV industry. Empirical research findings suggest that the specific diffusion model considered above is not only of theoretical appeal but also of major empirical relevance. The analytical findings of the study are documented in six theoretical propositions for which proofs are provided in a separate Appendix. The results of a related numerical experiment together with the analytical findings pertaining to the competitive role of advertising are included. Managerial implications of the study together with directions for future research are also discussed.