Contemporary methods for evaluating complex project proposals

The ability to evaluate project proposals, assessing future success, and organizational value is critical to overall business performance for most enterprises. Yet, predicting project success is difficult and often unreliable. A four-year field study shows that the effectiveness of available methods for evaluating and selecting large, complex project depends on the specific project type, organizational culture, and managerial skills. This paper examines the strength and limitations of various evaluation methods. It also shows that, especially in complex project situations, the decision-making process has to go beyond the application of just analytical methods, but has to incorporate both quantitative and qualitative measures into a combined rational judgmental evaluation process. Equally important, the evaluation process must be effectively linked among functional support groups and with senior management in order to strategically align the project proposal and to unify the evaluation team and stakeholder community behind the mission objectives. All of this requires leadership and managerial skills in planning, organizing, and communicating. The paper suggests specific leadership actions, organizational conditions, and managerial processes for evaluating complex project proposals toward future value and success.