Automated Box–Jenkins forecasting modelling

This paper presents Box–Jenkins methods used to develop a forecasting methodology that can be integrated within a simulation modelling environment. The resulting tool can be used by project managers in the capital planning of large-scale infrastructure construction projects. The advantages of the Box–Jenkins method with respect to accuracy, systemization, and error dependency are outlined in relation to this type of project, generally manifested in a time-series model. As well, the paper sets out the relevant algorithms involved in Box–Jenkins forecast modelling, and the relationship among them. In order to adapt Box–Jenkins methodologies for engineering problems, classical Box–Jenkins methods must be simplified and then automated and integrated with the aid of computer technology. The paper then details the development of the integrated modelling template using MATLAB, tracking the necessary elements of the program.